Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
